Shintia

BRC warning highlights importance of trade credit insurance

Business Products & Services Comments Off
Feb 152012

Trade credit insurance can be a very important aspect of risk management and many companies rely on it to protect their finances in the event of non-payment. At present, such financial policies may be particularly vital, as a warning from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) highlights.

Any firms that do business with retail organisations may be interested to note that this trade association has predicted a rise in the number of administrations in the sector. Responding to figures produced by Deloitte that showed the number of such failures rose from 165 in 2010 to 183 in 2011, it claimed that further rises are likely over coming months.

Meanwhile, administrations for the fourth quarter of last year were up more than 25 per cent compared with the same period in 2010. When firms go under, this can have a hugely negative impact on their creditors.

It may only be through savvy financial risk management that firms are able to make it through these tough times.

BRC director general Stephen Robertson noted that 2011 was a difficult year for retailers with virtually no growth in real terms for such organisations. He also described the high number of administrations as "alarming".

It can be difficult for companies to know whether or not to extend trade credit to other firms, whether they are involved in the retail sector or any other industry. In many cases it is only by making use of the appropriate business intelligence and insurance that enterprises can remain in operation.

Posted by Shintia at 3:53 pm

Charles Phillips CEO and Main Man of Infor Corporation

Advertising & Marketing Comments Off
Jan 132012

Charles Phillips CEO is definitely a great addition to Infor Company. It was actually Jim Schaper, who was the chairman and CEO of Infor Company, who worked on to head the Infor team that welcomed Charles Philips as a positive addition to the company’s top level management team. As Infor’s main man, Schaper is simply very happy to acknowledge Charles Phillips as one of the highest-level officers of the company. He is likewise fast in mentioning that Charles Phillips was not only a leader, but a truly exemplary one capable of leading his team members to truly greater heights. He is certainly a perfect fit to the Infor Corporation. Other leaders are aware that he will apply to the company all the essential knowledge and experience that he has gained from previous companies.

Why was Charles Phillips CEO the next leader of Infor Company? Shraper said that his firm has been looking for a long time already for the next big officer of Infor. When he found out that Phillips was available, he immediately worked to have him on board and become part of the group.  Actually, there were many reasons why Infor pursued Phillips. First of all, he has vast essential knowledge as well as experience, particularly in systems applications. He was likewise considered to be a great catch with his crucial Wall Street experience. He also understands the importance of positive client relationship and its significance when it comes to company innovation. With all the talent and creativity of Charles Phillips, Infor is truly positive about being capable of helping in the continuous advancement and growth of Infor. With the help of Phillips, the company is on its way to becoming acknowledged by rest of the financial and business world. This is the true reason why Infor named Phillips to be one of the highest-ranking officers of the firm. With its over 21 years of true leadership in the computer system software industry, Charles has everything to give to Infor.

Before Infor Company, Charles Phillips CEO actually had a vital role in the immense success of Oracle. He headed this firm when it comes to asset acquisition moves and strategies. This includes a variety of business transactions, like those involving BEA and Siebel Systems, and even Hyperion Solutions. During his term, Infor Corporation has built itself to become one of the largest enterprise applications company in the entire world. It is truly proud to achieve over 60 percent yearly revenue growth in its last seven years; this has a bigger margin than most of the top systems applications companies. Needless to say, the Phillip’s leadership, the company created for itself a positive track record in innovation.  Phillips helped Infor into serving over 70,000 customers from 125 countries. Infor is poised to take advantage of major growth.

Posted by Shintia at 3:55 am

Clever car finance

Auto & Motor Comments Off
Jan 102012

At www.rightdrive.co.uk we help people who have poor credit histories to secure excellent car finance deals. We know that, given the current financial climate, many of us are struggling to make a fresh start, and a history of debt can make it very difficult to get a foot back on the financial ladder and work back from the red to the black. Having a reliable car can also help those looking for extra work, as many of us now have to travel outside our local areas to find work or have second jobs which require their own transport. We have a fleet of high quality used vehicles on offer for very low monthly payments, so even if you have been refused credit by other companies, please apply online and we will focus our efforts on finding you the best deal possible. We can find deals for customers with bad, poor or average credit histories and there are many benefits to our service. Your finance payments can be arranged on an 18 to 42 month basis, dependant on the age of the vehicle which you require, all vehicles come with a free 3000 miles/3 month warranty, we welcome part exchanges for vehicles with no MOT, and our finance is arranged in-house, in conjunction with leading UK lenders. Another excellent advantage of our service is that, provided you continue to make your payments on time, you can effectively improve your credit rating, which opens up opportunities in other areas of your life. For guaranteed car finance, always trust www.rightdrive.co.uk

Posted by Shintia at 3:32 pm

Safely Transfer Money To An Offshore Account

Financial Comments Off
Dec 102011

Whether you have a second home in a foreign country, your business has an office abroad, or you simply want to maintain a second bank account away from home, some ways of transferring money are safer than others.

When you want to make a foreign money transfer, here are some tips to ensure that you do so safely, so that you do not lose any of your money and you don’t fall prey to one of the many money transfer scams out there.

First, ensure that the company you choose to send your money with is reliable. It’s best to go with a company with a long standing reputation and several years of experience under their belt. For instance, here at Foreign Currency Direct we have been sending money abroad safely for our clients for more than 10 years.

We are currency brokers, and specialize only in the area of best exchange rates for your money, and sending money abroad safely for you. Our staff are all experts in this area and are here to help you make the smoothest transfer possible.

Common mistakes in sending money online that result in loss of the cash are falling for scams, such as those that contact you personally via email. If you are ever asked for personal bank details, passwords, or an up front fee, this is probably a scam.

Once you have selected your company for the transfer, contact the company for more information or register with them online.
Have questions? We’re happy to help! Just ring us on: 0800 328 5884.

Posted by Shintia at 4:02 pm

Month-End Recap, Dec 2010

Macro Musings Comments Off
Jan 042011

As usual, this is not investment advice and should not be construed as such.

I am currently 90% invested, as follows:

62% Agricultural commodities
10% Other commodities
12% Emerging market equities
06% Miscellaneous equities
10% Cash

My largest position continues to be in soybeans, followed by sugar.

Although my net exposure hasn't changed from last month, I've redone my allocations somewhat. Most tangibly, I've continued to sell EM equities into weakness, while adding to my exposure in grains and softs. Both switches worked out well. Looking ahead, I hope not to make any major portfolio changes for at least a few months.

As for performance: December was a very good month to end what was a very good year for my portfolio. I ended the year at my high-water mark, which is always gratifying. Even more gratifying is the fact that I handily beat pretty much every benchmark imaginable -- MSCI World, S&P; 500, GSCI, CRB, Gold, Oil, RJA, Barc Agg Bond, CSHFI, you name it -- without taking on any leverage or illiquidity. Here's hoping 2011 brings more of the same!

Posted by Shintia at 6:51 am Tagged with: , , ,

Thoughts from the Desk

Macro Musings Comments Off
Dec 232010

Here is an email I just sent to my friend W (a former trading desk colleague who I still bounce ideas off every now and then). Not a particularly deep email or anything, but it may serve to give a flavor of the way I approach directional macro trading:

There seems to be a clear divergence in markets at the moment. On the one hand commodities especially ags are charging higher. JJS is up over 20% mtd. And soybeans are making their 2nd attempt at clearing resistance at 1350; if they break then the next target is around 1550. So that's bullish. On the other hand EM stocks are clearly weak. China, Brazil and India are all down 10% from their peaks in early Nov and the charts all look quite bearish to me (especially China). For whatever reason, commentators here are completely ignoring the EM swoon [1]. But it could be dangerous, especially if oil continues to rally (remember the rule: if oil use is above 6% of GDP, a recession is coming).

I am uncomfortably reminded of Jan 2008. Then too, oil was at 90ish. Then too, India and China had peaked a few weeks / months previously. Then too ags rallied phenomenally for a few more months before crashing. (This fits in well with my existing thesis that soybeans should rally till June 2011). Of course history never repeats itself exactly, but it does rhyme occasionally. At any rate, I am going to be watching very carefully for signs of a correction (possibly a major correction)...

[1] Everyone on TV is happy because US stocks are melting up into year end. My own theory is that people were convinced that QE2 was a "buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact" trade and so they unwound their positions in Nov, happy to lock in their profits for the year. Without so many longs left in the game the market was free to rally, and so it did.

Posted by Shintia at 9:29 am Tagged with: , , ,

Europa Endlos

Macro Musings Comments Off
Dec 022010

One exercise that I used to do quite often, back in the days when I was a "professional" trader (that is to say, a trader with other people's money), was to make up improbable scenarios and justify / explain them.

Part of my motivation for this exercise was to be intentionally and deliberately contrarian. Saying No when the market says Yes is a long-term profitable strategy in itself, irrespective of the underlying fundamentals. (Some day I will write a longer post on why this should be the case).

Another part of my motivation was to have fun. There's nothing like donning a tin-foil hat to enliven a drab afternoon trading session.

But the most important part of my motivation was a serious one: to avoid confirmation bias. Quoting Wikipedia: "Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, regardless of whether the information is true."

This was something I had to constantly guard against in my career as a trader. Given the sheer volume of market data that I was constantly barraged by, and the necessity of somehow filtering that data, it was essential to make sure that my filters were unbiased. Considering alternative points of view not tainted by a priori estimates of "probability" was an excellent way of maintaining filter neutrality. Hence the contrarian game.

Here's an example of how to play. Right now the newspapers are full of the Irish bailout and the fear of contagion in other Eurozone economies ("PIIGS-hooey"). You might think that this somewhat fraught state of affairs would lead to a decline in the Euro, and indeed that is the consensus opinion. So your task is to be contrarian and invent a rationale for going long the Euro, despite (or perhaps because of) these macro currents.

And here's such a rationale. Assume the crisis gets worse. Assume contagion in the form of inexorably rising bond yields spreads to Portugal, then Spain, then Italy. The worse the crisis gets, the less possible it is for the centre to bail out the periphery. The only option left is default, and possibly exit. But what happens after that? As successive dominoes fall, the common currency zone shrinks until only healthy core countries (read: Germany) remain. The Euro ends up looking a lot like the old Deutsche Mark. Freed of all its baggage, it begins to rally. Voila!

Note that I don't actually believe this scenario will eventuate, at least not with a high probability and not in the near term. But at the very least, thinking through a scenario like this (replete with path-dependency and feedback effects) makes it difficult to simple say "Europe in crisis, Euro goes down" and use that as a guide to trading. Life is more complicated than that.

Posted by Shintia at 10:54 am Tagged with: , , ,
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